The Math Doesn’t Lie: A Bayesian Analysis of COVID-19’s Origin

The WHO’s own expert panel published its final report. When you apply formal probability to their findings, the conclusions point somewhere the authors were unwilling to go.

In February 2026, twenty-three scientists from twenty-seven countries published their final word on where SARS-CoV-2 came from. These were the members of the WHO’s Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO), and after three and a half years of work, their conclusion was carefully worded: “most of the peer-reviewed scientific evi…